A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
